Kazan is assigned the role of a quiet harbor for friendly contacts with ASEAN leaders.

      Signed memorandums may turn out to be a formality, but strong personal connections can change the course of events, political scientists believe.

      Photo: Dinar Fatykhov

      The Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan opens at a time of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. "Russia has the opportunity to maximize the reset of relations with Southeast Asia," said political scientist Konstantin Kalachev. The GDP of ASEAN members by purchasing power parity in 2025 is expected to exceed $13 trillion, which is comparable to the markets of the Old World, while they leave partner countries the right to sovereignty. "Kazan can provide an atmosphere of informal communication with influential figures from ASEAN countries who can turn the tide of events," hopes orientalist Karine Gevorgyan. More details can be found in the article "Real Time."

      ASEAN refused to follow the policy of isolating Russia

      Kazan is hosting the anniversary summit of Russia-ASEAN, timed to the 35th anniversary of the establishment of trade and economic relations with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Invitations were sent to the leaders of all 11 ASEAN member countries (Brunei, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, East Timor), as well as the Secretary-General of ASEAN. The agenda of the forum includes the evolution of Russia's relations with Southeast Asian countries. "Today, ASEAN is a significant diplomatic partner for Russia, primarily due to the interest of the association in the evolutionary transformation of the system of international relations," the report of the Russian Council on International Affairs states.

      Dinar Fatykhov / realnoevremya.ru — The association and most of its members have a benevolent neutrality towards the ideas of forming an alternative to the Western world. Despite pressure from the US and the West, ASEAN-centric institutions have refused to follow the policy of isolating Russia, it emphasizes.

      Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed his participation, under whose chairmanship ASEAN has transitioned this year (it changes every year, editor's note). The authorities of Vietnam also confirmed their readiness, as this country has historically been a pillar of Russian presence in Southeast Asia. The Prime Minister of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Le Minh Khai, appointed in April this year, was one of the first to arrive in Kazan, followed by Thai Prime Minister Anuthin Charnvirakul and Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.

      The Prime Minister of Malaysia listens to "Mother" and reads Tukay

      On the same day, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who has recently become a fan of Russian national culture, was welcomed at Kazan airport. A year ago, at the plenary session of the "Russia-Islamic World" forum, he recited a poem by Gabdulla Tukay in Tatar, becoming a media personality. This time, before flying to Kazan, he posted on social media footage of boarding the plane to the song "Mother" performed by Tatyana Kurtukova. "I am heading to Kazan, Russian Federation, to participate in the memorable ASEAN-Russia summit," Ibrahim wrote.

      Dinar Fatykhov / realnoevremya.ru

      The authorities of Cambodia and Singapore confirmed the arrival of their prime ministers. The Secretary-General of ASEAN, Kao Kimhourn, also arrived in Kazan. Special guests expected include Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Secretary-General of the SCO Nurlan Ermekbaev. A total of about 4,000 delegates will participate in the summit.

      Kazan Declaration, Comprehensive Action Plan until 2030, and joint statements on energy and culture

      President Vladimir Putin will participate in several events at the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan, reported Yuri Ushakov, assistant to the head of state, at a briefing.

      taken from kremlin.ru

      "On Wednesday and Thursday, that is, June 17-18, in Kazan, our president will participate in the anniversary summit of the Russian Federation - Association of Southeast Asian Nations," he said, adding that Putin will meet with the President of the Philippines, the Sultan of Brunei, and the Prime Ministers of Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia, and East Timor.

      According to him, summit participants will exchange views on current global and regional issues, as well as discuss integration processes in Eurasia, trade, and security issues.

      provided by the press service of the head of Tatarstan

      As a result of the summit, the adoption of the Kazan Declaration, a Comprehensive Action Plan for the implementation of strategic partnership for 2026-2030, and joint statements on energy and culture is expected, Yuri Ushakov reported.

      In the evening, Vladimir Putin will hold a ceremonial reception in honor of the heads of delegations. It will take place in the new building of the Galiaskar Kamal Theater.

      ASEAN unites countries with monarchy and socialism, and this does not scare

      What could be Russia's practical interest in reformulating cooperation with Southeast Asia? "Logistics seems to be the most important, which will allow establishing sustainable logistics routes," political scientist Konstantin Kalachev explained. "Reliable markets for traditional products can be expected to open, and new partners can be found to help solve problems arising from sanctions," he believes.

      Politically, these countries differ significantly from each other. Vietnam remains true to the socialist system, Thailand to the monarchy, while in Indonesia, the communist party is banned, and a capitalist system is developing in the country. "Conditionally speaking, ASEAN states are fundamentally very different in their political structure. But they all have common economic interests. Russia has the opportunity to maximize the reset of relations with Southeast Asia if it builds mutually beneficial economic partnerships with ASEAN," Kalachev believes.

      provided by the press service of the head of Tatarstan

      Today, 684.1 million people live in ASEAN countries — this is the 3rd place in the world by population. The total GDP of the countries is $3.9 trillion, or 5th place in the world, and the foreign trade turnover is estimated at $3.8 trillion. "We often underestimate the potential of these countries. In technological development, Indonesia and Thailand outpace many of the most dynamically developing economies in the world," Kalachev believes that an expansion of trade and economic cooperation in the fields of machine engineering, IT, and agriculture is to be expected.

      Indonesia is among the ASEAN countries with the highest GDP among its members. In 2022, this country accounted for about 36.4% of the total GDP of ASEAN countries — approximately $1.3 trillion. Thailand ranked second in GDP volume in 2022 (13.7%), followed by Singapore (12.9%), Vietnam (11.3%), Malaysia, and the Philippines (11.2% each).

      Indonesia is considered the main economy of ASEAN due to its significant resources, including reserves of nickel, bauxite, copper, and iron sand.

      screenshot from the website of the President of the Philippines

      As for settlements, these countries have the most stable national currencies. For example, the exchange rate of the Thai baht or Philippine peso has not changed for several years. "I think the issue of settlements is a technical question. The most important thing is whether there are markets for Russian products, besides grain, hydrocarbons, and mineral fertilizers," the expert pointed out.

      "The current Russia-ASEAN summit is taking place at a time of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, but Kazan can provide an atmosphere of informal communication with influential figures from ASEAN countries who can turn the tide of events," expressed hope orientalist Karine Gevorgyan.

      Dinar Fatykhov / realnoevremya.ru

      "Kazan has a very friendly atmosphere in every respect. I felt this when I participated in the 'Russia-Islamic World' forum. It seems to me that personal contacts will be formed here now. Moreover, personal and trusting ones. And I see great benefit in this in today's turbulent conditions," shared the opinion of the political scientist. "We do not know whether the war in the Middle East will resume, what will happen around Taiwan. These processes cannot be stopped. But if good personal, trusting relationships are formed in Kazan, there will be a chance to change the course of events."

      As Karine Gevorgyan believes, signed memorandums and resolutions may turn out to be a formality, but strong personal connections can truly change the situation.

      Luiza Ignatieva