Tatarstan expects a "shrinking" of milk producers

      In Kazan, they proposed to study the experience of the USA, where milk is "poured" into a common pot, and producers are paid a weighted average price

      Photo: Real Time

      The problems of the dairy industry in Russia and, accordingly, Tatarstan are partly due to Belarus, said Andrey Romanov, chairman of the Association of Holstein Cattle Producers, at a round table meeting held at "Kazan Expo" as part of the "Agrovolga-2026" exhibition dedicated to industry issues. The head of the "Krasny Vostok" holding, Adel Khairullin, predicted a "shrinkage" of milk producers in the market, as a result of which only the most profitable players will remain. Read about the problems of the dairy industry in the republic against the backdrop of nationwide issues, encouraging and discouraging indicators, and ways out of the current situation in the report by "Real Time."

      Prices are falling, hopes are rising

      Denis Pirogov, head of the Republican Union of Milk Producers (Tatmolsoyuz), expressed concern at the round table meeting at "Kazan Expo" as part of the "Agrovolga-2026" exhibition that a situation may soon arise where the cost of milk production exceeds the profitability threshold. Farmers have been sounding the alarm over falling purchase prices for raw milk for several years, but in 2026 the situation became catastrophic for many of them. For large enterprises, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of Tatarstan, it currently stands at 32.88 rubles per kg excluding VAT, having decreased by 6.11 rubles since the beginning of the year, and by 1 ruble over the past month. However, the situation with purchase prices for private farms looks truly catastrophic—they are forced to sell milk for only 24.81 rubles per kg, which is 8 rubles less than at the beginning of the year and 57 kopecks less than a month ago. Farmers have been sounding the alarm over falling purchase prices for raw milk for several years, but in 2026 the situation became catastrophic for many of them. Dinar Fatykhov / realnoevremya.ru

      However, Pirogov believes that "this period will pass" and there is already a "small trend towards an increase in demand for finished dairy products," and their stocks in warehouses "are at least no longer increasing."

      — In this regard, there is a positive mood, — he said. — That is, we do not want to name specific deadlines now, but we very much hope that in the near future there will be a certain adjustment of this trend that lowers prices for raw milk. But in any case, we must work with the cost of the products produced. I am focusing on the production of raw milk today, but there are certainly also resources for processing. Regarding costs per unit of product—these are the capacities of enterprises, logistics of supplies, and so on.

      Pirogov believes that there is a "small trend towards an increase in demand for finished dairy products."

      screenshot from the VK page "AGROVOLGA 2026"

      Pirogov suggested that colleagues work together with the team of the Union of Milk Producers to conduct audits, identify points of loss, and jointly develop an action plan. He also stated that Tatmolsoyuz will continue to lobby for commodity interventions to remove the surplus of finished dairy products from the market.

      — For agricultural producers in our region, for Tatarstan, this is especially important because we currently have one of the lowest purchase prices in the Russian Federation, — he emphasized. — Therefore, we also continue to lobby for compensation for additional costs per kilogram of milk.

      Pirogov noted the particular importance of measures to combat counterfeiting against this backdrop. He reported that a working interdepartmental group has been established in Tatarstan, which includes representatives of the Rosselkhoznadzor, Rospotrebnadzor, Tatmolsoyuz, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Food. The association is working to identify counterfeit dairy products, but the percentage of such low-quality products "is still quite high."

      Whey vs Butter

      The export of dairy products from the agro-industrial complex of Tatarstan in June 2026 showed an overall increase of 10.6% (in monetary terms, converted to dollars) compared to the same period last year, reported Gelyus Bayazitov, deputy minister of the republican Ministry of Agriculture and Food.

      At the same time, the export of fermented dairy products, according to him, did not increase. Supplies of milk and cream outside the republic increased by 3.6%, ice cream by 31.9%, and whey by 1.8 times. There was a very serious decline in the export of butter—by 93.4%, and the export of cheeses and cottage cheese also fell by 15.6%.

      screenshot from the VK page "AGROVOLGA 2026"

      The deputy minister also noted that Tatarstan produced 2.37 million tons of raw milk in 2025, but production volumes are growing due to large farms, while output in private farms is decreasing.

      — Of course, our main growth points are modern dairy complexes, modernization, construction, — he said. — But over the past 8 years, the operational cost of milk has doubled, while price indices have increased by 1.5 times, meaning costs are rising at a faster pace. In other regions, even those neighboring Tatarstan, there is already a price increase. For example, in the Kirov region, milk is sold for 44-46 rubles. There is also an offer from Danone; they are ready to give an additional 4.5 rubles... These moments exist, but at the same time, it is necessary to ensure stable volumes and quality of milk.

      There was a very serious decline in the export of butter—by 93.4%.

      Maria Zvereva / realnoevremya.ru

      According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, Tatarstan processes 85% of its milk, and there are 7.6 thousand tons of finished products unsold in warehouses—1 thousand tons less than in May 2025. Mostly this is cheese (4.3 thousand tons).

      What to do if people won't eat that much milk?

      The problems of the dairy industry in Russia and, accordingly, Tatarstan are partly due to Belarus, said Andrey Romanov, chairman of the Association of Holstein Cattle Producers, later. In his opinion, the import of "dairy products" from there poses high competition to domestic products and is unlikely to decrease in the near future.

      The head of the "Krasny Vostok" holding, Adel Khairullin, predicted a "shrinkage" of producers in the raw milk market, as a result of which only the most profitable players will remain.

      screenshot from the VK page "AGROVOLGA 2026"

      He recalled an excursion to Kaliningrad in August 2024:

      — At that time, there was already an established price, even though it seemed that there was not 100% provision of the population with milk in the city, but the region provided itself daily at 88% with a production of 750 tons of milk per day. And at the same time, milk producers understood that any additional ton produced would lead to a decrease in price by a few kopecks. That is, self-regulation worked within such an enclave, which statistically still has a growth potential of 12%. So, additional sudden overproduction of milk will not bring the benefits that already exist.

      He emphasized that Tatarstan is a dairy region, but the volume of milk produced "people won't eat," and its own processing is loaded in the republic at 88%, and at the same time, the "Krasny Vostok" group of companies, for example, produces 95% of its milk in the republic, but only keeps 49% internally, sending the rest to other regions, "because prices are more interesting there." But there is also a problem:

      — We are at that point in the economy where there are no giant warehouse stocks, but the question was not about how difficult it is to export them from the country or the region, but about how unprofitable it is to export them. And despite all the optimization that is carried out daily with rations, veterinary drugs, and personnel, this margin for innovation is already extremely difficult to determine in order to achieve standard profitability of at least 14-18%.

      Adel Khairullin emphasized that Tatarstan is a dairy region, but the volume of milk produced "people won't eat."

      Real Time / realnoevremya.ru

      The head of the holding suggested studying the experience of the USA. There, processors pay milk producers a weighted average price to all raw material suppliers regardless of quality, and in the end, this does not affect the average price.

      Inna Serova