Economists warned of a disaster: what will happen to prices if the Central Bank sharply lowers the rate to 7%
Photo: Official website of the President of Russia kremlin.ru August 9 – IA SM.News. A heated discussion about the fate of the key interest rate has been ongoing in the professional community for several months. Representatives of the industrial sector and companies with high debt burdens insist on a radical easing of monetary policy, demanding that the rate be lowered to 5-7%. However, experts surveyed warn that hasty actions by the Central Bank could trigger a chain reaction of negative consequences.
The illusion of benefit and the reality of consequences
According to the director of the investment company Evgeny Nadorshin, the short-term euphoria in the stock market will be followed by a rapid rollback. Cheap loans will flood into the purchase of imported goods, but export revenues will not increase due to logistical constraints and sanctions barriers. The result will be a devaluation of the ruble by 5-10 points and inflation driven by consumer demand.
A blow to savings and prices
The founder of the investment social network Vladislav Nikонов points out that the first to suffer will be holders of bank deposits.
The yield on deposits will collapse below inflation, and the devaluation of money will provoke double-digit price increases. Not only food prices will rise, but also services, where inflation already exceeds 10%. By the end of the year, the country risks facing galloping inflation.
Why cheap loans won't kickstart production
Experts dispel the myth that a low rate will automatically lead to a boom in import substitution. Building factories requires equipment, technology, and skilled personnel—resources that are critically lacking. In conditions of uncertainty, businesses will prefer to spend borrowed funds on closing cash gaps rather than on long-term investments with a payback period of 5-10 years.
Specialists believe that the Central Bank can administratively set the rate at 5-7%, but cannot force the entire economy to operate within these parameters. If the market does not believe in the adequacy of the decision, the difference will be compensated by rising rates on loans and bonds.
The risk of a Turkish scenario
A sharp easing of policy threatens to lose control over the macroeconomic situation. In a few months, when it becomes clear that production has not increased and inflation is out of control, the regulator will have to urgently raise the rate to even stricter values. This will undermine trust in the financial system and create a crisis of non-payments in the banking sector.
Conclusions
Experts are unanimous: a shock reduction in the rate for the immediate benefit of individual borrowers will result in severe consequences for the entire economy. The country risks experiencing stagflation, years of double-digit inflation, and ruble devaluation. Restoring financial stability, which the Central Bank has built over the years, will require significantly more time and resources than supporters of easy money believe.
Source: Ura.ru
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Economists warned of a catastrophe: what will happen to prices if the Central Bank sharply lowers the rate to 7%
Photo: Official website of the President of Russia kremlin.ru
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Photo: Official website of the President of Russia kremlin.ru
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Economists warned of a catastrophe: what will happen to prices if the Central Bank sharply lowers the rate to 7%
Photo: Official website of the President of Russia kremlin.ru
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