Trump's long-range axes: will Ukraine get "Tomahawks" and what threat do they pose to Russia?

      The United States is considering supplying Kyiv with long-range missiles

      The threat of "Tomahawks"

      U.S. President Donald Trump said he intends to warn Moscow: if the conflict in Ukraine is not resolved, the United States may supply Kyiv with Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of up to 2,500 km. He said this while speaking to reporters aboard his plane.

      "Honestly, I may have to talk to Russia about the 'Tomahawks.' Do they want Tomahawks flying in their direction? I don't think so. I think I should talk to Russia about this, to be frank. I spoke about this with President Zelensky, because Tomahawks are a new step of escalation. You understand? You understand that well," Donald Trump told reporters.

      In early October, Trump said he had "almost made a decision" to supply Tomahawks to Kyiv. The Kremlin warned that such a step would be "a serious turn of escalation." According to the press secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, possible supplies of Tomahawks to Ukraine cause serious concern in Moscow.

      The head of the Kyiv regime, Vladimir Zelensky, has called Trump twice in the past two days. According to Axios, during the first call, which took place the previous day, the supply of Tomahawks to Kyiv was discussed. Zelensky claims that Kyiv intends to use long-range weapons exclusively for military targets.

      In an interview with Fox News on October 12, Vladimir Zelensky said that Trump has not yet made a final decision on the Tomahawks.

      What is the "Tomahawk"

      The Tomahawk is a family of American multipurpose, high-precision, subsonic long-range cruise missiles of strategic and tactical designation for submarine, surface and land-based deployment. The name derives from the eponymous war axe of North American Indians. The missile has been used in all significant military conflicts involving the United States since it was adopted into service in 1983. The approximate cost of one missile is about $2 million. As of 2011, 7,302 units had been produced and procured.

      The Tomahawk is a functional means of solving a wide range of combat tasks. Instead of a standard warhead—nuclear or conventional—the missile can carry cluster munitions to strike dispersed targets (for example, aircraft on an airfield, vehicle parks or a tent camp).

      The main danger of the Tomahawk lies in the fact that it flies at extremely low altitudes, following the terrain, which significantly complicates interception by air defense systems. The missile can carry up to 450 kg of warload.

      The Tomahawk is produced in naval, air and land variants. In the case of land-based deployment, launches are carried out from a mobile launcher (a tractor unit coupled with a semi-trailer-type platform). The effective firing range is about 2,500 km. Thus, if launched from Ukrainian territory, the entire European part of Russia would be in range. According to estimates by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW), almost 2,000 military facilities on Russian territory could theoretically fall within the strike zone if Washington transfers such missiles to Kyiv.

      Russia's reaction

      During the plenary session of the XXII annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly commented on possible supplies of this weapon.

      "As for Tomahawks, they are powerful weapons. They are, admittedly, not entirely modern, but powerful and pose a threat," the Russian president said.

      He emphasized that Kyiv's use of the missiles would negatively affect relations between Moscow and Washington.

      Supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a serious escalation of the conflict, but would not be able to change the situation on the front, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said.

      Peskov also recalled reports from Russian special services about Kyiv's capabilities to create a "dirty bomb."

      "Just imagine: a long-range missile takes off and flies, and we know that it could be in a nuclear configuration. What is the Russian Federation to think? How? Military experts across the ocean should understand this," he told Rossiya 1 journalist Pavel Zarubin. According to him, launching Tomahawks toward Russia could be classified as a nuclear strike with all the ensuing consequences.

      Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Russia would respond appropriately to the transfer of Tomahawks to Ukraine. According to him, this would become a new wave of tension in relations between the countries.

      How Russia might respond

      The particularity of using Tomahawks is that monitoring a launch and target reconnaissance are impossible without the participation of Western militaries. If this weapon is used, Russian forces would gain freedom of action regarding both the Kyiv regime and Western countries. A possible response would be a massive strike on the government quarter of Kyiv, where Ukraine's military-political leadership is located. Also possible is raising the strategic nuclear forces to their highest level of combat readiness and conducting demonstrative strikes—single missile launches with nuclear warheads into ocean waters or uninhabited areas.

      First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs Vladimir Dzhabarov previously stated that if Tomahawks are supplied to Kyiv, it may not only be Ukraine that suffers. This is a direct hint at a possible retaliatory strike on Western military bases in Europe.

      As an asymmetric response, Russia could also consider deploying its missile systems, for example, in Cuba or Venezuela.

      Not so dire

      When Vladimir Putin referred to Tomahawks as not the most modern weapons, he meant that since 1983 (42 years have passed) air defense systems have been significantly modernized. Because the Tomahawk flies at subsonic speed (about 800 km/h), cannot maneuver with high overloads and is not equipped with a decoy system, detected missiles can be successfully engaged by the modern air and missile defense systems that Russia possesses. The threat is serious, but quite surmountable.

      Remember how there were earlier fears of the use of long-range ATACMS missiles over Russian territory. As a result, Russian air and missile defense effectively counter these attacks (bearing in mind that the ATACMS speed is about 5,400 km/h—many times higher than that of the Tomahawk).

      The main advantage of the Tomahawk—flight at extremely low altitude—also has weaknesses: the low effectiveness of terrain-following systems when firing over flat terrain, in the tundra, forest-tundra or coastal zones with gentle relief, as well as poor controllability during heavy snowfall.

      In any case, supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine would be a serious escalation of the conflict, but would not be able to change the situation on the front. And then—only direct confrontation between Russia and the West? There is hope that America will realize the consequences of such a step and refuse to supply Tomahawks to Kyiv.

      Photo: kremlin.ru