Low oil prices and an economic recession will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation.

Low oil prices and an economic recession will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation.

      Photo: IA SM-News January 15 – IA SM.News. Key decisions on budget priorities in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of oil prices and the sanctions environment. In the medium term (2027–2028): with a continued deficit and the need to finance defense and social programs, a revision of priorities and a moderate sequestration policy remain possible tools for budget redistribution, especially if tax revenues do not increase. "Oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in 2025 decreased by 24%, amounting to 8.48 trillion rubles, which is the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic, mainly due to falling oil prices. Forecasts for 2026 indicate a possible further decline in revenues due to the likely drop in Brent prices below $60 per barrel," notes analyst Kirill Rodionov. In any negative scenarios, the likelihood of sequestration increases to maintain funding for critically important programs. At the same time, there is a commitment to pension and social support, which limits the scope of cuts. "The reduction in oil and gas revenues – along with an increasingly pronounced slowdown in the economy – will dictate the need to revise budget priorities, especially in the case of 'geopolitical normalization'," Rodionov concluded.

      Earlier, IA SM-NEWS reported that a civil war may begin in Iran.

      More news on the event:

      The Russian budget will lose ₽231.9 billion in oil and gas revenues in January 2026. The reason is the fall in oil prices. The Russian budget in January of this year will lose oil and gas revenues of 231.9 billion rubles. 07:51 16.01.2026 TatCenter.ru - Kazan

      Low oil prices and recession in the economy will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation. Photo: IA SM-News January 15 – IA SM.News. Key decisions on budget priorities in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of oil prices and the sanctions environment. 23:52 15.01.2026 Kazan.Sm.News - Kazan

      News from neighboring regions on the topic:

      Expert: Increasing exchange sale standards may prevent the rise in fuel prices, but regulators will not go for it. Photo: IA SM-NEWS January 16 – IA SM.News. The rise in fuel prices in February 2026 is likely to continue in the range of approximately 6–12% compared to January, 22:00 16.01.2026 Ufa.Sm.News - Ufa

      Expert: Increasing exchange sale standards may prevent the rise in fuel prices, but regulators will not go for it. Photo: IA SM-NEWS January 16 – IA SM.News. The rise in fuel prices in February 2026 is likely to continue in the range of approximately 6–12% compared to January, 19:57 16.01.2026 Ryazan.Sm.News - Ryazan

      Expert: Increasing exchange sale standards may prevent the rise in fuel prices, but regulators will not go for it. Photo: IA SM-NEWS January 16 – IA SM.News. The rise in fuel prices in February 2026 is likely to continue in the range of approximately 6–12% compared to January, 21:55 16.01.2026 Ekb.Sm.News - Yekaterinburg

      Low oil prices and recession in the economy will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation. Photo: IA SM-News January 15 – IA SM.News. Key decisions on budget priorities in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of oil prices and the sanctions environment. 23:57 15.01.2026 Ryazan.Sm.News - Ryazan

      Low oil prices and recession in the economy will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation. Photo: IA SM-News January 15 – IA SM.News. Key decisions on budget priorities in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of oil prices and the sanctions environment. 03:48 16.01.2026 Kemerovo.Sm.News - Kemerovo

Low oil prices and an economic recession will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation.

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Low oil prices and an economic recession will lead to a social crisis in the Russian Federation.

Photo: IA SM-News January 15 – IA SM.News. Key decisions on budget priorities in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of oil prices and the sanctions environment. 01.15.2026. Kazan.Sm.News. Republic of Tatarstan. Kazan.