Annual report of the Central Bank: between official statistics and the reality of citizens

      On March 26, 2026, Elvira Nabiullina presented the annual report of the Bank of Russia for 2025 to the State Duma. The figures on the slides look impressive, but the head of the Central Bank herself admits: citizens perceive the situation differently.

      Inflation: Rosstat vs. Wallet

      The official inflation rate for 2025 was 5.6% — the lowest since 2020. But there is a nuance: citizens themselves estimate the price increase at 15%. "This difference between Rosstat's figures and how people perceive inflation exists not because Rosstat is calculating something incorrectly, but as a consequence of a very long period of high price growth," Nabiullina acknowledged. Formally, inflation has slowed down, but over three years, sanctions and rising prices have already become a new reality. The economy grew by 10%, investments by 16%, and real incomes and salaries by a quarter. But the question is different: how much do these incomes keep up with prices? The key rate was lowered from a peak of 21% to 15%, but it still remains high. And even taking into account the slowdown in inflation, by the end of 2026 it will be above the target of 4% due to the increase in VAT, tariffs, and recycling fees.

      photo: press service of the CBR

      Mortgage: Subsidized Chokes the Market

      The situation with mortgages looks paradoxical: 72% of all issuances in 2025 were under the "Family Mortgage" — a subsidized program. Market mortgages are gradually recovering, but their share remains small. Nabiullina provided a telling example: in 2019, when market mortgage rates were 9-10%, 1.3 million loans were issued in a year — the same amount as in 2024. But then, for every 50 market loans, there was 1 subsidized loan, while now for every 2 subsidized loans, there is 1 market loan. "Who will take a market loan if they have access to a subsidized one? And why would banks issue many market mortgage loans if [...] the credit risk that banks are willing to take on in mortgages is filled with subsidized loans?" The head of the Central Bank openly admits: subsidized mortgages have displaced market ones. And she adds: "Unfortunately, if someone pays a low rate, someone else will pay a higher one." This means that those who do not qualify for subsidized programs effectively subsidize those who do. And approaching the rates of 2019 is only possible with a targeted approach to subsidies and further reduction of inflation.

      Protection from Fraudsters: 20 Million Self-Bans

      The scale of the fraud problem is shown by the numbers: in less than a year, 20 million people have set self-bans on loans. About a million people connect to this service monthly. The "cooling-off period" before issuing a loan has reduced credit fraud by 40%. But Nabiullina admits: fraudsters are moving to cash schemes because many cashless transactions are simply not processed by banks. And there is a critical lack of protection from telecom operators, who could disconnect calls during suspicious calls. This means that measures are working, but the problem has not gone away — it has just changed form.

      MFO: 100% Overpayment — Still Too Much

      Starting from April 2026, the cap on overpayments for microloans will decrease from 130% to 100%. This means that if a borrower takes out 10,000 rubles, they will return no more than 20,000 — even taking into account delays and penalties. "We are consistently lowering this cap. We started with a limit of 400%, which is five times the debt amount," Nabiullina reminds. But let's do the math: 100% overpayment still means doubling the debt. For comparison: bank loans, even under high rates, rarely imply such overpayment. The Central Bank plans to introduce a rule: no more than one expensive loan at a time and a cooling-off period between repaying one and taking out the next. The goal is to break the debt spiral. Meanwhile, 15 million people continue to use MFO services. And at the same time, the Central Bank is identifying illegal lenders — over a thousand in 2025. The most dangerous are those who take housing as collateral.

      screenshot from a video by the Bank of Russia

      Digital Ruble: Mandatory for All Except Citizens

      By September 2026, the largest banks will connect the digital ruble service for all clients. But Nabiullina emphasizes: "The digital ruble will be mandatory for banks and trade-service enterprises [...] but not for citizens! No one will have a digital ruble account opened automatically." This means that the infrastructure must accept the digital ruble, but citizens may choose not to open accounts. Advantages: free transfers for individuals, minimal fees for businesses. But the question remains: why is there such urgency in connecting banks? And why is control over the targeted use of budget funds through the digital ruble more effective than traditional methods?

      Cashless Payments: 88% — Leadership or Dependence?

      The share of cashless payments in Russia reached 88% — one of the highest figures in the world. A universal QR code has been launched, and the Fast Payment System is developing. "Russia maintains leadership in payment technologies," Nabiullina states. But on the other hand: such a high share of cashless transactions means complete dependence on payment infrastructure. And when in 2025 the largest Russian oil exporters and foreign correspondent banks fell under sanctions, payment problems took a back seat, but did not disappear.

      What’s the Outcome?

      The Central Bank reported on the work done:

      Inflation has slowed, but citizens feel it differently

      Mortgages are available, but mainly subsidized

      Protection from fraudsters is in place, but 20 million people set self-bans

      MFOs are being reformed, but 100% overpayment is still too much

      The digital ruble is being implemented, but citizens can refuse

      Cashless payments are at 88%, but this is also a vulnerability

      "We cannot tolerate high inflation," says Nabiullina.

      But can we tolerate the gap between official statistics and reality? This question was left unanswered in the report.

      Arslan Zakirov