China's trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion could lead to a global crisis.

      Anna Salnikova News Feed Editor

      By the end of 2025, China's trade balance surplus reached nearly $1.2 trillion, and Chinese exports grew three times faster than global merchandise trade. As Foreign Affairs (FA) writes, the development model based on industry and exports is approaching a turning point: global demand may not absorb the increasing volumes of Chinese goods, which could strike at the "Chinese export machine" and trigger a new global crisis. China accounts for about 30% of global industrial production; according to a UN report from 2024, this figure could rise to 45% by 2030. Approximately 60% of the increase in China's share of the global manufacturing market has been provided by government subsidies, according to the OECD. At the same time, nearly 30% of Chinese industrial enterprises operate at a loss — before the pandemic, their share was about 20%, and in the fastest-growing sectors, it reaches nearly 34%.

      The automotive industry also speaks of the problem of overproduction: China's capacities allow for the production of about 25 million electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids per year with domestic demand of about 12 million, while the country can produce about 55 million cars in total — about 60% of the global market. In 2025, exports of German goods to China fell by 9.3%, and sales of German cars decreased by 66% since 2022; during this time, Chinese exports of cars more than doubled, and the EU imposed tariffs of up to 35.3% on electric vehicles from China. FA does not rule out that with the rise of trade barriers, China may face a sudden deficit of external demand, warning of the global consequences of such a "settlement." A decrease in demand for raw materials could hit Australia, Brazil, Chile, and other developing countries: from 2012 to 2015, copper prices fell by more than 40%, oil by more than 60%, and iron ore by more than 70%. The authors believe that rebalancing the economy through increased domestic consumption and reduced subsidies is the way out, but Beijing is not ready for this yet.

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

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       Media: Overproduction in China could provoke a global crisis

       Further increases in China's industrial production and exports may face limited global demand and lead to a new wave of trade conflicts.19:55 16.08.2026 Business Online - Kazan

      

      

      

      

      

      

       China's trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion could turn into a global crisis

       Anna Salnikova News Feed Editor

      By the end of 2025, China's trade balance surplus reached nearly $1.2 trillion, and Chinese exports grew three times faster than global merchandise trade.16:46 16.08.2026 ProKazan.Ru - Kazan

      

      

      

      

      

      

       News from neighboring regions on the topic:

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

       Media: China faces a global crisis due to overproduction

       Anna Salnikova News Feed Editor

      The Chinese economy, built on factories and exports for decades, has hit a ceiling: global markets are flooded with its goods.00:14 17.08.2026 Pro Gorod Perm - Perm

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

       FA: China faces a crisis due to overproduction

       Photo: Pixabay

      The Chinese growth model, based on industrial production and exports, is approaching a "turning point," as global demand may prove unable to absorb the increasing volumes of Chinese goods.19:15 16.08.2026 Evening Moscow - Moscow

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

       Foreign Affairs warned of the "settlement for the Chinese export machine"

       The publication Foreign Affairs (FA) warns of the risk of a new global crisis caused by the scale of Chinese overproduction.16:45 16.08.2026 IA Public News Service - Moscow