"A Little Snow to Lift the Spirits" and Temperature Swings: Weather in Tatarstan for New Year and January

      During the New Year holidays, significant temperature swings are forecast in Tatarstan

      Winter was nearly a month late

      A real winter with a stable snow cover and frosts arrived in Tatarstan two to three weeks late, and overall the climatic parameters of winter formed almost a month later than usual, Felix Gogol, head of the Hydrometcenter of the Republic of Tatarstan, told Tatar‑inform. He explained that by climatic norms winter in the region begins when the average daily temperature consistently falls below minus 5 degrees Celsius and a permanent snow cover is established. This year those conditions occurred significantly later. "The date of the onset of the climatic winter occurred with a delay of two to three weeks, depending on the district. A stable snow cover was noted in the second ten-day period of December, whereas it should have been at the end of the second ten-day period of November. So, in fact, the onset of winter occurred a month later," Gogol explained. If under normal conditions the snow cover lies and persists by November 17–20, in the outgoing year this only happened in the second half of December. This confirms the overall abnormally warm picture at the start of the winter season.

      December was 4 degrees warmer than normal, but remembered for a record freeze

      December in Tatarstan was abnormally warm, its average temperature exceeded the climatic norm by about 4 degrees Celsius. Even the last frosty days of the year, according to the forecaster, did not change the overall picture. "The month as a whole still turned out to be above the norm due to the abnormally warm first and second ten-day periods. Average December temperatures were around minus 5–7 degrees Celsius. The norm for the republic is minus 9 degrees," Gogol said. The head of the Hydrometcenter of the RT explained that such weather was connected with active cyclonic activity. "Atlantic and North Atlantic cyclones moved into the republic's territory. We were sometimes in the warm sector, sometimes in the cold sector," he noted. However, the third ten-day period of the month, unlike the two previous ones, turned out to be colder than normal. This was caused by the incursion of Arctic air. The cold snap peaked on December 24, when average regional temperatures fell to minus 22–25 degrees Celsius, and some stations recorded frosts below minus 30 degrees. "The coldest day was December 24. This was due to cold Arctic air entering our republic, hence such a sharp drop in the temperature background," said Felix Gogol. As for precipitation, he said no serious anomalies were observed in December in Tatarstan. Snow and wet snow fell generally within the norm, with small deviations in places. "Precipitation fell within the norm, slightly above or slightly below the norm in individual areas. There were no serious anomalies," Gogol stated.

      A little snow "for the mood" is expected on New Year's Eve

      According to the forecast of the Hydrometcenter of Tatarstan, on December 31 weather conditions in our region will be formed under the influence of a western cyclone and its atmospheric fronts. Light to moderate snow is expected, with blizzards in places, and winds up to 15 meters per second during the day. On New Year's night air temperatures will be minus 9 to minus 14 degrees Celsius, with clearings causing local lows down to minus 17 degrees. No extreme weather events are forecast. "On December 31 a stable winter weather is expected — without severe frosts, thaws, or dangerous precipitation. The temperature regime promises to be comfortable — not too cold and not too warm, which will create good conditions for celebrations," Felix Gogol said. During the coming New Year's night the weather in Kazan will be typical for this time; the air temperature will drop to minus 10 degrees. A light snowfall "for the mood" is possible, Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo forecasting center, told Tatar‑inform. According to the Hydrometcenter of the RT, on January 1 residents of the republic should expect calm winter weather with occasional light snow. On January 2 the character of the weather in our region will not change significantly; light snow will fall in places, with daytime temperatures of minus 9 to minus 14 degrees. On January 3, as frontal boundaries of a northwestern cyclone pass through, snow, blizzards and strong winds are forecast, with daytime temperatures of minus 6 to minus 11 degrees.

      Air temperature on New Year's has fallen to minus 51 degrees

      Recalling historical weather records associated with the New Year period, Felix Gogol cited two examples. The most extreme conditions occurred on New Year's Eve 1978–1979, when anomalous frosts gripped the republic. "Air temperatures fell in the republic to minus 41–42 degrees Celsius. In the far northeast, in Agryz, the temperature on New Year's night dropped to minus 51 degrees," Felix Gogol said. According to him, public transport was practically not running then, there were many power line breaks. Some people suffered severe frostbite. Another dangerous event of the past was a powerful blizzard on New Year's night 1975–1976, when wind speeds in Bugulma reached 32 meters per second, causing traffic stoppages and power line breaks. "Over the past decades, the temperature background on New Year's night has been close to or slightly above normal," the head of the Hydrometcenter of the RT noted. He also added that recently no extreme events had occurred in the region. However, if one recalls history, there were New Year's nights with sleet.

      Early January weather will be comfortable for walks

      The first days of the new year in Tatarstan will be mild and only weakly frosty. According to Alexander Shuvalov, early January will be characterized by comfortable winter weather. The first day of the new year will be frosty. "Good, mild winter weather," the forecaster noted. However, such weather will not last long. Already on January 3–4 a slight nighttime cooling to minus 12–17 degrees is expected, which will quickly be replaced by a new wave of warming and snowfall. "A fairly deep cyclone is approaching from the west, snow will fall, and the temperature will rise to minus 3–6 degrees. Most of the upcoming New Year holidays will pass with mild, weakly frosty weather," Shuvalov explained. The turning point will come after the Christmas holidays. At the end of the first ten days of January residents of the republic should expect a sharp and strong cold snap. "A cold spell is forecast starting January 8–9. A sudden drop in temperature immediately to minus 20–25 degrees is not excluded," Shuvalov warned.

      "Temperature fever" is expected during the holidays

      Alexander Shuvalov emphasized that sharp temperature swings will be characteristic of the whole of January. "I use the terms 'temperature fever,' 'temperature hills,' 'temperature swings.' They will plague the weather in Tatarstan throughout January," the forecaster said. Noticeable temperature changes are usually accompanied by swings in atmospheric pressure. At the same time, the average temperature for the first ten-day period of January is expected to be close to normal, despite extreme fluctuations. The main precipitation in the first ten days is expected on January 3 against the background of warming. "There will be five warm days, and then it will suddenly get so cold that your teeth will chatter. And the average temperature for the ten-day period will be close to normal. There are no deviations, but the fluctuations within that ten-day period are very, very significant," the head of Meteo said. As Felix Gogol explained, the normal temperature in Tatarstan in the first ten-day period of January is about minus 10–11 degrees. During these days the region will be on the border of temperature zones. In the northern districts temperatures will likely be about or slightly below normal. And the central and southern districts, including Kazan, may feel a slight warming: a positive anomaly from zero to plus 2 degrees relative to usual values is forecast there. In Kazan temperatures will fluctuate around minus 7–9 degrees with the norm being minus 9 degrees.

      Photo: © Vladimir Vasiliev / Tatar‑inform