Ivan Grachev: "Russia has significantly lagged behind the accelerating China and the USA in the space industry."

      All people will be able to use Musk's internet; which country's lunar ambitions will prove stronger?

      "Our country, unfortunately, cannot enter the lunar race today. Russia has no real projects for landing people on the Earth's satellite, but it can play a significant role in a joint project with China by building a lunar nuclear power plant, without which the military significance of a base on the Moon is minimal," states Ivan Grachev, a regular author for "BUSINESS Online" and chief researcher at the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In a new article, the expert explained how SpaceX CEO Elon Musk plans to earn $75 billion from the IPO and what makes his Starship V3 rocket so cool.

      "China's Space Romance"

      I highlighted several events from this week, all related to the space industry. First, the flight of China's "Shenzhou-23" spacecraft to their crewed multi-module orbital station "Tiangong" ("Heavenly Palace"), which orbits at a low Earth orbit altitude of 340 to 450 km above the Earth's surface. Second, another test flight of Elon Musk's super-heavy Starship V3 and widespread media and blog discussions about the IPO of his company SpaceX. Third, the movement of Russian satellites of the "Kosmos" type, which the Asian press called unprecedented. This is related to the deployment of new Earth remote sensing (ERS) equipment and military reconnaissance devices, which benefit from a polar (sun-synchronous) orbit that provides a global overview of the territory. Regarding "Shenzhou-23," an article titled "China's Space Romance" was published in Global Times on May 26. It notes the sharp expansion of peaceful scientific programs of the "Heavenly Palace" due to the arrival of "Shenzhou-23." In contrast, Eurasian Times published a rather aggressive article titled "China's Lunar Ambitions Are Military in Nature." It convincingly explains that with the aim of long-term military dominance over the United States, China plans to be the first to land on the Moon and establish a military base there.

      In this context, it is mentioned that experiments related to the future lunar base are planned to be conducted on "Shenzhou-23." I would add that China is simultaneously working on a super-heavy rocket that is already undergoing tests. It is capable of delivering 70 tons of cargo to low Earth orbit and 27 tons to lunar orbit. This super-heavy rocket addresses the challenges of transporting taikonauts (Chinese astronauts) to the Moon by 2030 and establishing a lunar base by 2035.

      In my opinion, only Musk can realistically outpace China in the "resettlement" to the Moon. The aesthetic launch of his Starship V3 deserves a separate literary description, but I will limit myself to some, in my opinion, interesting technical details. This spacecraft placed 45 tons of satellite simulators into low Earth orbit. This is five times less than what the head of SpaceX claimed, but still a significant amount. And it is substantially more than what Russia and China are currently launching. The launch of the American rocket allowed the completion of the entire planned research program, which is quite surprising, considering that there were problems with the rocket's engines at different times on both the first and second stages.

      Thanks to Musk, people everywhere will be able to use broadband internet.

      Let me remind you that the Russian (or rather, Soviet) lunar program ended precisely because explosions occurred due to problems with one or two engines. Despite similar issues, Starship V3 managed to accomplish its main tasks. It can also be added that a targeted experimental breach was made in the spacecraft's thermal protection to observe what would happen. The results demonstrate very high structural resilience to both design and other emergencies. Judging by the discussions, this test flight added optimism to both engineers and businessmen.

      Against this backdrop, a discussion about the SpaceX IPO emerged. An IPO (Initial Public Offering) is the process by which a private company first offers its shares for widespread sale on the stock exchange. In mid-May, the company submitted a public S-1 prospectus (a basic registration document that companies file with the commission) for review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which disclosed all of SpaceX's financial statements, business strategies, and risks. Given that the document discusses amounts far exceeding the entire Russian budget, I believe there is much interesting and possibly instructive material in these documents, including for us.

      Musk's company's specialists provide a total market forecast of $28.5 trillion, of which space services (mainly rocket launches) will bring in $0.3 trillion, Starlink satellites will account for $1.6 trillion, and the main revenues are expected to come from the "artificial intelligence" segment. At the same time, the billionaire claims that he has opened the largest market in human history. There is little doubt about the expected revenues from space launches, as the head of SpaceX currently controls 80% of rocket launches in the U.S., and this percentage is growing. Accordingly, he has no competitors in terms of price and quality for this series of rockets, starting with Falcon 9.

      The amount for Starlink also raises little doubt. Currently, Starlink's satellite communication has 10 million subscribers. The company has been allowed to lower the orbits at which satellites can be placed, enabling mobile phone connectivity from anywhere on Earth. Wherever people live, they will be able to use broadband internet. The average growth rate of subscribers is 80-90% per year. Subscriptions are the main source of the company's income. In 2025, Starlink generated $11.4 billion! There are no real competitors in sight. So the figures stated in the prospectus presented to the Securities and Exchange Commission are quite realistic.

      How much did Musk receive from the U.S. government?

      The income from AI and its connection to space deserves special attention. Moreover, it is interesting regardless of whether experts accept it. As an example of experimental information on which the revenue estimates for Starlink are based, the American technology company in the AI field, Anthropic, is cited, which created a digital brain that is widely used by the military. Anthropic signed a contract with Musk for the use of the company's computing power. According to the contract, Anthropic will pay Musk $1.25 billion per month until May 2029. This is a huge flow of money!

      In turn, the billionaire will provide his clients with computing power supplied with electricity from the Colossus-1 station, which was commissioned in 122 days. Amazing speed! Even faster— in 91 days (this period is not entirely definite, as it was implemented in stages)— Musk commissioned a more powerful station, Colossus-2, intended for the same purposes. It operates from 7 to 50 gas turbines, each with a capacity of 35 megawatts. Formally, these turbines function as temporary mobile generating capacities.

      This significantly simplifies the relationships between the head of SpaceX and regulators, environmentalists, etc. Naturally, there is an uproar: they claim that these are not mobile but real power plants. And Musk will inevitably face pressure to comply with all the requirements imposed on conventional power plants. Therefore, Musk came up with the idea of placing power plants in orbit, where neither regulators, nor legislation, nor environmentalists will be underfoot. At the same time, he argues that with the launch cost of 1 kg, which reusable super-heavy rockets will allow him, the scheme is economically viable. There are plenty of companies like Anthropic capable of providing such a cash flow, and there are some in our country as well. However, I do not think that placing power plants in orbit is cheaper than placing them on our islands in the Arctic Ocean or in Antarctica.

      Musk plans to earn $75 billion from the IPO with a total company valuation of $1.75 trillion. That is, to receive such money that, as far as I know, no one has ever received at once, while selling a tiny number of shares. For comparison, it is interesting to know how much Musk received from the U.S. government. It is difficult to give an exact estimate because he received most of the money through closed contracts. If we roughly estimate the income of the richest person in the world from open and closed contracts with NASA, the Pentagon, and the federal government of the United States, it amounts to about $45 billion.

      Russia has fallen far behind the accelerating China and the U.S.

      Most likely, the amount is larger and comparable to what "Roscosmos" received from the Russian budget in about the same time, but with significantly different results. To be fair, let’s consider that Musk was provided with about 10% of the entire (open and closed) U.S. space budget. His company, I remind you, performs about 80% of launches. The company's high efficiency may be explained not only by Musk's outstanding abilities but also by the fact that SpaceX, as far as I know, has not been involved in any corruption scandals throughout its operation. Accordingly, summarizing this part: he will likely receive very substantial funds. And, having them, he will accelerate the already quite rapid work.

      Our country, unfortunately, cannot enter the lunar race today. Russia has no real projects for landing people on the Earth's satellite, but it can play a significant role in a joint project with China by building a lunar nuclear power plant, without which the military significance of a base on the Moon is minimal. So far, plans for this project, as far as is known from open sources, are being fulfilled. Apparently, at this point, Russia in